As a few of you have noticed, the race for Crown the Cat did not fill for Sunday. This basically leaves us with two options for her next race, neither of which are our top choices.
Option #1 – $5,000 N2L – 6 Furlongs – Thursday, Jun 30
This is the same race we have been running in, but it is a notch down the class ladder. It is most likely that we would be facing a few of the same faces in this race as we did in our last. This race is one that she should win. However, the drawbacks are that it is for slightly less purse money and there is a better chance that she could be claimed – simply because the claiming price is cheaper.
That being said, you do have to put horses in races they can win. This is certainly a race that she has a good chance of winning. She would likely be first or second choice on the morning line.
Option #2 – $25,000 N2L – 1 Mile & 1/16 Turf – Friday, July 1
This race is the other option. The pros are that it would give us a chance to run long and that it would be for a $10,500 purse. The cons are that the group is likely to be tougher and that allowance runners tend to drop into this level. Additionally, we would be trying her on a surface that she hasn’t competed on for awhile. She could be anywhere from second or third choice to fifth or sixth choice. Additionally, these races tend to draw fuller fields, so she might have to race against 8-10 other rivals.
Finally, this race is scheduled for July 1. For those that have been paying attention, it is possible that the track could be forced to close due to the government shutdown. If that were to be the case, we may not be able to run on July 1 (or for an undetermined amount of dates thereafter – click this link for more about the shutdown). In all likelihood, this could force our horse to the sidelines for another week or two until the track is able to reopen. However, we’d still be incurring expenses during that time as we’d have to keep the horse in training.
This is obviously a worst case scenario and unlike any that most other owners would be forced to consider. However, it is the reality and it is important as a horse needs to eat an exercise whether it has a race to run in or not.
Our view is more or less that it makes the most sense to enter the $5,000 N2L for the following reasons:
1. We are almost guaranteed the race will fill.
2. We wouldn’t be forced to sweat out as many questions in regards to the shutdown.
3. She should win.
However, we understand that many in the group have differing opinions on what may be best for the Cat. We will discuss our options with Kenny, Kevin, et al in the coming days and will leave the final decision in the hands of the trainer.
We would like to hear your opinions as well as any questions you have in regards to the race options. Please post them below and we will continue this discourse. There is no easy answer this time folks.
Drop her. With the possible shutdown looming…trainers may be hesitant to pay $5k for her realizing they'll have to ship her somewhere to run her. Plus with all the pub this horse has gotten…maybe some other trainers on the grounds have a heart 🙂
My opinion would be to drop her. We'd risk a claim, but have a better chances of a win and avoiding any setbacks from a shutdown.A few questions:1. If she were to win at the $5k N2L level, how are races filling at the next level, N3L or other? Would this give us more likelihood of getting her into a route race on dirt?2. If we were to lose her on a claim, what would be our account balance?3. If we lost her on a claim, could we claim another horse?
Let's drop her into the NW2 $5000 claiming race and hope for a win. 1 for 13 does not prove that she will win at higher levels. I think many horses at her level get dropped to the $5000 level to make some money.
We're in this to see what she can do. I'd like to see her in the turf race; she ran really well on the muddy track. I'd hate for her to be claimed.
Well I hate to see her claimed, but we know that we only have her for the meet anyway. I want to enjoy as many trips to the winners circle as possible. With the pending shut down would anyone really want to claim a horse right now. Unless they plan to ship her out. Let her run on Thursday. It might be our last chance to see her anyway. Thanks to our WORTHLESS politians!
I'm not afraid to run the risk and put her in the route scheduled for 7/1. We had our winner's circle photo – is it really all about winning and losing? Well yes…it's a horse race! but I like to gamble 🙂 I think putting her in the 5k claimer is just the same as putting a $2 show bet on the favorite (aka…a waste). I say let's see what she can do. The 5k claimer is a gimme and then our game may be over if she is claimed….And in case anyone is wondering; trainers and owners have a heart OFF the track, but on the track it's business! Crown is a good horse. Many of the trainers would be ready to go if the state shuts down 7/1 – how easy would it be to pick up Crown for $5k on 6/30 and then ship her out with the rest of their horses to another track?
We vote for Thursday's race. Would hate for her to get claimed but it is out of our hands.
Just another thought… I did see a 10,000 N2L 1 mile on July 7th. This is seemingly the race we have been waiting for. We would know if the shutdown occured by then and if so would be able to ship her and run her quickly at a level where she would be claimed or would be highly likely to win. However, if it is highly likely that Canterbury will close we might as well run her Thursday.Thanks again to all those involved. This has been quite an education.
I would like to see her on a turf course. I do not want her claimed at this point in the season. Of course, I trust Kenny's judgment.
Certainly some good discussion and some good points being raised. I'll try to address questions and comments in order.PonyBoy – Good questions. 1. Races at the next level ($5,000 N3L) have been filling going short, but haven't been filling going long. It appears that the only way she'll be able to try going long would be to run on the turf.2. If you were to lose her via claim the account balance would be approximately $12,500 plus any purse money earned in the race. The group would be close to even if she won the race.3. If we lost her via claim, we would take a vote of what the group would like to do. One option would certainly be to claim another horse.Anonymous 2The 10,000 N2L races going long (like the race on July 7) have not been filling. The first time it was offered it drew 2 entrants and the last time it was offered (last week) it only drew two entrants as well. At this point in the meet, it is unlikely that race will ever draw enough horses to be run. Unfortunately, this would likely lead to us having to find an option again after the race fails to go on the seventh. The horse is ready to run, we need to take advantage as the bills continue to add up.
Nothing is ever ideal. The Cat’s PPs don’t show much for turf races, only one start with poor results. I think she is a $10k horse but those races don’t fill and we can’t afford to wait around. I say we enter her for the race June 30 and take our chances with the claiming process.
State shut down or not, I don't see CBY being shut down. That's just my opinion. Here's my "out of the box" look at race options. Monday's decision day and I say let the weather decide. If on Monday it looks like a 70% or more chance of rain for Friday, then skip Monday's entry for Thursday and enter Tuesday for Friday's turf route – hoping it rains, goes to dirt and then a few of the field would scratch as we usually see when it switches to dirt. Then we get to see what CtC can really do on a dirt route. I think testing her on turf is too risky even for my bets. If Friday's forecast looks like fair weather, then enter on Monday for Thursday's race & hope we don't get claimed. Still not a slam dunk win but yes, a better chance at the money. Anyway, there's my .02 to add to the mix. Whatever is decided, see ya trackside…
Actually entries for Thursday are taken on Saturday. We will enter and see what happens. There may be other options after that as well.JM