TERICE – Race Preview

As Terice goes postward on Friday afternoon, she carries on her back a 2-race winning streak for the group as well as a new rider, for her, Emmanuel Esquivel. Esquivel has done a wonderful job with MJ and has kept her in the mix until it was time to make the move. Ideally he’ll be able to do the same here.

The race is a $5,000 claiming race going a mile and 16th over the main track. It’s the 5th race with an estimated post time of 3:50 Central Time.

Here is the field:

1 Beertent Baby (Rainwater/Molina) – Hasn’t been able to finish better than 3rd since graduating her conditions. She’s sets the pace in most of her races and will look to do so again in here.

2 Changeforanickle (Lynch/Slinger) – Probably take a minor miracle just for this one to hit the board given her performances for the new connections. The water doesn’t get any shallower moving to Hawthorne from Fairmont.

3 I’ve Heard Rumors (Becker/Roman) – Had a rough go over the main track last out. This one has been really hit and miss. If she’s “on” then she’ll be coming from off the pace. Her regular rider is aboard so if anyone knows how to get her going it would be him.

4 Grayrock (Turco/Felix) – Your 7/2 Morning Line favorite is riding a 2 race winning streak at this level and distance. She stalks beautifully in a style reminiscent of MJ. She is going to be tough to beat.

5 Wildcat Devil (Cristel/Aragon) – Stretching out after exclusively sprinting in her career. Her only win in her past performances was in a non-winners of a race in a year. Otherwise she hasn’t been particularly competitive. She did show speed in that one win but that appears to be an aberration.

6 Dreymore (Randazzo/T Thornton) – A weak third at this level since coming to Hawthorne. She was much more competitive in the Spring at higher levels.

7 Wild Luna (Turco/M Thornton) – Wins this year have come at Turf Paradise, Canterbury and Fonner – all lower levels than this. Her last two at Hawthorne have been relatively non-descript.

8 TERICE (BRINSON/ESQUIVEL)

9 Metonga Mist (Ryan/Meza) – This one could not want to come from further off the pace. Her problem is going to be the lack of pace to run at in here. In her win at this level two back, she came from 23 out of it after having trouble at the break. The race will really need to set up for her and I’m not sure that this one will.

10 Number One Gal (House/Emigh) – Another with a win at this level two races back, she has shown to run better close to the lead though it’ll be tough for her to take on the front runner from the 10 spot. She stays close and she’ll be trouble.

While MJs last couple of races were pretty clear to me, this one is a bit more murky. Jeff mentioned to me that this could be a good betting race and I think he’s right. The money should be a little spread out and for you trifecta and superfecta players, smart boxing here could provide a nice payoff.

Can Terice win? Well, she always can win! I don’t think she’s over her head in here and I thought she had all kinds of trouble in her last race and had no chance whatsoever. If she can stay right around where Grayrock is going to be, then we’ll see who has what left on the way home. Given the lack of speed in here it wouldn’t surprise me if Beertent Baby is able to hold on for a piece in here – and maybe a big upset if she can shake loose and slow it down.

I don’t think that our girl is a clear cut claim in here either, though if you were heading to Tampa and wanted a turf runner, I think she’d be solid or for someone that might want to lay her off until Canterbury in the summer. We shall see. As far as I’m concerned, I think she’ll run well in here but will need some breaks to win. If she has to go head to head with Grayrock down the lane, I wouldn’t bet against our girl’s toughness.

Good Luck!

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5 thoughts on “TERICE – Race Preview

  1. Thanks as always Ted for the preview. You do them very well and it is above and beyond what we expect.

    One question if you wouldn’t mind….you noted the chances of a claim. I’m curious on your thoughts as an owner of several horses. Let’s say someone saw Terice, and thought she would be competitive at the $7.5K – $15K level at Tampa, and the new connections wanted to keep her and run her at least through the winter/spring down there. Is there enough purse money available to make all of the costs of a claiming horse a “reasonable” risk at a mid-range winter track?

    In other words, given the known costs of the claim, the transport, and the monthly “known” costs of training and boarding (forget worrying about extra vet costs or something worse), is that viable for an owner of a single horse today, or do you really have to do something like that in a partnership or consortium or whatever? I look at the purse structures at the lower end tracks and can’t make the math work at all. I can still make it work for a horse of allowance/stakes quality, but we all know your allowance horse today might be your claimer tomorrow.

    I’m more interested in your national perspective. Thank goodness for the local Sampson ownership and direction, or we were headed into issues as well. We are in much better shape locally than we might have been.

    • EXCELLENT question and observation. Racing, as I hope we’ve seen, is a difficult endeavor to make money at.

      Even looking here at home. The Canterbury purses for a track of it’s size are good – excellent if you remove the tracks that have slot machines. Look at us – we have 3 wins and a slew of in the money finishes and we still have less money than when we started. And you are absolutely right, Lincster, the lower the purses the harder it is to make a go of it. The economics simply do not work. I’ll spare you my horrid attempts at math but you’ve all seen it in our spreadsheets (another which will be available this weekend).

      The overall economics do not work better if you have a multiple ownership group, but it DOES help spread the loss around. It’s also why I tell people who want to enter into one of my groups that you really have to want to be in this for the entire ownership experience and not just looking to nab that “home run horse”. If 10 of us are in for $2000 each and we buy/claim a horse between $10,000 and $15,000, we leave enough money in the bank for 2 to 4 months of expenses and give it a good run. If we have to kick in more money, then the bite hurts just a little bit less.

      Even looking at the big money tracks in NY and CA, you have day rates of trainers that can exceed $100 a day and vet costs are considerably higher than we see in the Midwest so with the added money comes added expenses. Here is a link to a wonderful blog of a friend of mine in NY, Steve Zorn. He writes about the business of racing while running his own partnership group and he outlines in a couple of great posts what it takes to make money in NY: one post was pre slot money and one was post. Here is a link to the second that has a connection to the first as well: http://businessofracing.blogspot.com/2012/03/update-cost-of-thoroughbred-ownership.html

  2. Another very nice win in Chicago today! Terice made a nice move at the top of the stretch and headed home with a 2 1/2 length win. That’s 3 in row and 4 for the season for the Canterbury Racing Club! It is great to hear the cudo’s for the Club over the Hawthorne live feed! Everyone involved needs to be thanked tremendously for their work! 2 claims in the race but obviously they took the wrong ones! Terice is still with us for another run,

  3. Thanks Terice and all involved!! Another win is great!! I was hoping it was Terice that was claimed but maybe her last race??? MJ & Terice should get 1 more turn to win in Dec. unless they are bought outright. Thanks Clay, Juan, Emmanuel, and all involved!!

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