As Terice goes postward on Friday afternoon, she carries on her back a 2-race winning streak for the group as well as a new rider, for her, Emmanuel Esquivel. Esquivel has done a wonderful job with MJ and has kept her in the mix until it was time to make the move. Ideally he’ll be able to do the same here.
The race is a $5,000 claiming race going a mile and 16th over the main track. It’s the 5th race with an estimated post time of 3:50 Central Time.
Here is the field:
1 Beertent Baby (Rainwater/Molina) – Hasn’t been able to finish better than 3rd since graduating her conditions. She’s sets the pace in most of her races and will look to do so again in here.
2 Changeforanickle (Lynch/Slinger) – Probably take a minor miracle just for this one to hit the board given her performances for the new connections. The water doesn’t get any shallower moving to Hawthorne from Fairmont.
3 I’ve Heard Rumors (Becker/Roman) – Had a rough go over the main track last out. This one has been really hit and miss. If she’s “on” then she’ll be coming from off the pace. Her regular rider is aboard so if anyone knows how to get her going it would be him.
4 Grayrock (Turco/Felix) – Your 7/2 Morning Line favorite is riding a 2 race winning streak at this level and distance. She stalks beautifully in a style reminiscent of MJ. She is going to be tough to beat.
5 Wildcat Devil (Cristel/Aragon) – Stretching out after exclusively sprinting in her career. Her only win in her past performances was in a non-winners of a race in a year. Otherwise she hasn’t been particularly competitive. She did show speed in that one win but that appears to be an aberration.
6 Dreymore (Randazzo/T Thornton) – A weak third at this level since coming to Hawthorne. She was much more competitive in the Spring at higher levels.
7 Wild Luna (Turco/M Thornton) – Wins this year have come at Turf Paradise, Canterbury and Fonner – all lower levels than this. Her last two at Hawthorne have been relatively non-descript.
8 TERICE (BRINSON/ESQUIVEL)
9 Metonga Mist (Ryan/Meza) – This one could not want to come from further off the pace. Her problem is going to be the lack of pace to run at in here. In her win at this level two back, she came from 23 out of it after having trouble at the break. The race will really need to set up for her and I’m not sure that this one will.
10 Number One Gal (House/Emigh) – Another with a win at this level two races back, she has shown to run better close to the lead though it’ll be tough for her to take on the front runner from the 10 spot. She stays close and she’ll be trouble.
While MJs last couple of races were pretty clear to me, this one is a bit more murky. Jeff mentioned to me that this could be a good betting race and I think he’s right. The money should be a little spread out and for you trifecta and superfecta players, smart boxing here could provide a nice payoff.
Can Terice win? Well, she always can win! I don’t think she’s over her head in here and I thought she had all kinds of trouble in her last race and had no chance whatsoever. If she can stay right around where Grayrock is going to be, then we’ll see who has what left on the way home. Given the lack of speed in here it wouldn’t surprise me if Beertent Baby is able to hold on for a piece in here – and maybe a big upset if she can shake loose and slow it down.
I don’t think that our girl is a clear cut claim in here either, though if you were heading to Tampa and wanted a turf runner, I think she’d be solid or for someone that might want to lay her off until Canterbury in the summer. We shall see. As far as I’m concerned, I think she’ll run well in here but will need some breaks to win. If she has to go head to head with Grayrock down the lane, I wouldn’t bet against our girl’s toughness.