Race 9 on Sunday will mark the return of Group 1 to the paddock! Belle will be taking on a group of 8 other fillies and mares going 5.5 furlongs over the main track. The race is for horses that have not won 4 races lifetime and a tag of $6,250. She drew the rail with Orlando Mojica aboard.
So why would we run her under her purchase price?
Well, she’s had two really subpar races in a row. The first she had an excuse with the stumble but in the last she was pressured on the outside and just gave up. She seems to have bounced back from her foot injury but there may be some lingering mental issues for her. We drop her down to try and get her some confidence as well as get a measure of how far off she may be. If she really struggles with this group (it could happen) then we have a horse who has really tailed off.
She’s also won nearly $11,000 for us at this point. We bought her for around $8,000. Should she happen to get claimed at $6250 and happens to also win the race ($7500 winner’s share) she would have banked us $24,000 at a cost of about $8200 (including tax) plus expenses for 4.5 months (about $12,000) for a net profit of about $4,000.
Sure it’s not exceptional but in the grind it out world of lower level claiming, it’s the goal.
Of course all kinds of other things can happen: we could come in 9th and still get claimed; we could come in 9th and NOT get claimed; and any number of permutations which could result in net loss, break even or less profit.
You’ve got to run them where they have a chance of winning. Given her 14 Beyer and getting absolutely smoked last out, this may be her best chance given how badly she’s tailed off.
We will preview the race tomorrow. Good luck and see you at the races!
She’s 5/2 on the morning line and second choice.