Belle in Friday at Churchill

Belle will be making the Club’s first start at the home of the Kentucky Derby on Friday.  She drew post 12 in race 10 in the $5000 claiming race going 6 furlongs over the dirt,  Rafael Mojica Jr. will be in the saddle and the race is scheduled for roughly 6:10 PM our time.

It’s a big field and a rough post but she’ll see what she can do.  We’ll post the PPs when we get them and run down the race later in the week.

Good luck!!

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Belle Good; September Financials

Belle came out of the race just fine.  It was a tough go for her right on the lead four wide.  While we were able to win a race – that was void of any other speed – gate to wire once, it has not been her forte over her career.  Sitting off the pace and then trying to get first jump on the early leaders would be her way and what we will try to do next out at Churchill Downs.

We will look to enter her in $5000 claiming races there.  I believe that is probably below her value but we do have to be horseless at the end of the year so we will go right at them and try and get a win or two while making sure she’s as tempting a claim as possible.

Below are the financials through the end of September.

CRC 2017 Running financials – SEPT

Not Quite What We Were Hoping For

Belle finished 7th Saturday and while the race shaped up the way we expected, she was not where we would have hoped.  She broke alertly and pressed the quick early pace 3-4 paths wide.  By the time it came to run for the money, she just had nothing left in the tank.  Ideally we would have tracked that early pace but that’s not how it played out.

November 2 there is a $5000 claiming sprint at Churchill Downs.  We’ll see how she comes out of this race and Nevada will evaluate her readiness for that race.  It’s only 13 days away but if she’s ready it’s where we need to go.

My guess is that she will need one relatively impressive race before we can get her claimed.  While I’d love to have her bought next race, it is more likely that she’ll have to prove herself and then come right back at the same level to be a solid target.

Jeff and I are both in town this weekend so I will be able to get the vet bill from last month and I should be able to have the financials through September up this weekend.

Let’s see how she comes out and we’ll take it from there.

Keeneland’s Experts

Here are the thoughts of Keeneland’s expert handicappers on Belle’s race this afternoon.  As you can see, we’re not getting any local love at all.  Good luck!!

Mike Battaglia

4th Race: LA MAJESTIQUE (#7) has done most of her racing on the grass going long but has a solid dirt record and drops to a career-low claiming level. She figures to be running late in a race with plenty of early speed and she could spring the upset. ULTRA ARUMBA (#9) is also capable of running at the end with Corey Lanerie aboard. DIXIE LOVER (#5) may be the best of the early runners.

Katie Gensler

Race 4:  DIXIE LOVER (5) gets away from the rail for her second start off the claim and strong record at the distance.  DISTRICT ATTORNEY (6) ran well here in the past to be a player second off the break with a sharp 3f drill.  WISHIHADA (3) could be the quickest of them all with a brief freshening for a sharp barn.

Jeremy Plonk

Race 4 – Bottom-level $7500 claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. Eight different circuits have produced the 10 winners (CD has 3), so this is a grab-bag at this level. The same 8-10 winners last raced at 6 furlongs or less last time, so you want a true dasher and not a turn-back. That’s because the average winner is ¾-length back after a half-mile at this class/distance and no winner has closed more than 3 lengths the final quarter mile to win. Consider that at any distance, the 33 Fall Meet basement claimers on dirt have been won by 29 different trainers (only 4 have 2 wins each). Mix in a full field of 12 and you have a tough task ahead in this one.

Tom Leach

Race 4
Like a Haint (1) is coming off a new Beyer figure peak and this one has run well at Keeneland and  has been very good lately in her dirt starts.  Key this one with Wishihad, Dixie Lover and La Majestique.  Exacta boxes 1-3, 1-5, 1-7

Race Preview: Belle at Keeneland

Brilliant Belle with Rafael Mojica, Jr. aboard will try and give the Club it’s first ever Keeneland win in Friday’s 4th race (approximately 1:45 CT). The race brings Belle back on the dirt and sprinting six furlongs. She will break from post four amidst a very full field of twelve (I did not tackle the pair of ‘also eligibles’).

Like A Haint (Denzik/Hernandez) – 3-year old is a proven winner with toughness. Figs may be a bit low for this group, but certainly will be pressing the pace from the bell.

Basheba (Jurado/Morales) – Has been most successful when she can be near the lead but she hasn’t sniffed the lead since moving to Kentucky over the winter.

Wishihada (Domenosky/Geroux) – Canterbury competitor should also be attending to the early pace for the new barn (former Club trainer Tammy Domenosky). There is plenty of speed in here so it will be tough for her to shake loose.

BRILLIANT BELLE (LITFIN/MOJICA, Jr.)

Dixie Lover (Stinson/Court) – Oft-claimed traveler is very dangerous at the lower levels and should also be prominent early.

District Attorney (Riecken/Ordaz) – Hasn’t been a winner in years and will try and come off the pace. The early speed in here is encouraging for her but this track has not been knid to closing types in sprints.

La Majestique (Montana/Santana) – Big class dropper of the field drops to the lowest level of her career. She has good speed but plenty of speed inside of her. The big drop comes after being eased after nearly a year off and the pummeled in a $25,000 claimer. She cuts back to sprinting but the time off, lackluster performances and big class drop are all suspect.

Lucky Me Lucky You (Hancock/Kurtz) – Won by a late nose in her 2017 debut but has only managed a couple of 4ths since.

Ultra Arumba (Foley/Lanerie) – Splashed to a win in the basement at Ellis and closed nicely for third at Churchill last out. These are tougher here and the speed favoring track doesn’t help her chances.

Capriasca (Ewing/Borel) – First off the claim for the Ewing gang. Seems to be strategically flexible which will give Borel some options as the race unfolds.

Heavenly Daze (Hiles/Graham) – Another closer that may have a tough time here, she does get some class relief from her Churchill effort. Her most recent pilot chose another but retains the services of one who led her to last victory.

Teacup Twirl (West/Gilligan) – Indiana bred has plenty of speed but is mired on the far outside. Tough assignment to win from out here.

Belle has a morning line of 10-1. A quick look at her PPs does make that seem fair but what do we know? After her win, she stumbled out of the gate and cute her foot. The race after that she was certainly still feeling the affects when the real racing started and she faded badly. Her turf sprint wasn’t a bad effort at all considering the 7.5 furling distance. We tried her going longer and that was a failure as she was in a nice position but absolutely ran out of gas.

We know that she’s feeling fine and is healthy. She had a work that the clocker’s missed and she came out of just fine. She’s back on the dirt and she’s back to six furlongs. All points in her favor.

She’s certainly not unbeatable as there are several in here that you could consider “classier” than her. However her dirt Beyer speed figures in sprints where she was healthy match up favorably to everyone in here. While there is plenty of speed, I would expect Rafael to keep her just behind those leaders and find position heading into the lane for the run for home. If she’s good enough, she should be right in the thick of things at the end.

Good luck everyone!

Belle in Friday

Brilliant Belle is up against a full field of fillies and mares Friday in Keeneland’s 4th race.  It is a six furlong sprint over the main track with Rafael Mojica, Jr. up. $7500 claiming.

Belle has been training well and a cursory look at the PPs show she surely isn’t out-classed and she has solid speed which plays to the strength of the racetrack thus far this fall – got to be close in sprints to win.  Rafael has been working her so he’s familiar with her.

Below are the PPs for the race.  Look for a preview later this week.

Good luck!!

ppKEE2004

 

 

Belle Works; Entry Eyed

Though there were some communication issues surrounding Belle’s work Thursday and it didn’t get recorded, she did breeze 4 furlongs and galloped out an additional furlong over the poly training track at Keeneland.

She went well within herself and Nevada was satisfied with the work.  Next step is to enter.

We are looking at Substitute Race 1 (S1) for Friday, October 20.  The race is a six furlong dirt affair with a claiming tag of $7500.

Entries draw on Tuesday so keep an eye on the Twitter (@CBY_Racing_Club) for up to the minute info with a blog post to follow that evening.